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Num：53
See：1678
2020-12
09
Wafer rise, seal rise, chip rise, material rise... Where is the wildfire burning?
Following the increase in production capacity of 8-inch wafers, semiconductor components, copper clad plates and other raw materials, the "dominoes" caused by wafer shortage began to spread gradually: wafer, material, PCB, seal and chip rise, not only foreign IC rise, but also domestic chip shortage and no solution for the time being.
Under the atmosphere of price rise and shortage of goods, we have summarized the recent semiconductor industry chain price rise information for your reference.


Summary of semiconductor industry chain price rises
Copper clad
Copper-clad manufacturers launched another "letter of attack" in November, rising by around 10%, mainly due to higher prices for their raw materials copper, epoxy resin and fiberglass, as well as strong downstream demand. Copper-clad plate is the upstream core material of PCB manufacturing, which accounts for about 20%-40% of the cost of PCB production, and has a strong interdependent relationship with PCB.
Copper hits seven-year high, source: DailyFX
 
IC loading board
The industry comes, since the xinxing fire, IC board a new round of price surge seems to officially start, the increase in price between about 20%-40%. IC plate can protect the circuit, fixed line and dissipate waste heat. It is a key part in the packaging process, accounting for 40-50% of the packaging cost.
Leading dachang ASE investment control in the fourth quarter of the new orders and urgent single sealed price test, recently has informed the customer to increase the price of 5-10% in the first quarter of next year, in response to IC pallet and wire rack material costs rise.


The wafer
Wafer foundry production capacity is in short supply, including TSMC, UMC, World Advanced and PowerCHIP, orders for the fourth quarter were fully booked, and customers have booked all advanced and mature manufacturing capacity in the first half of next year.
According to the latest news from the industry chain, in addition to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., LTD and Samsung Electronics Co., SMIC and other wafer contract manufacturers have all raised their 8-inch wafer contract price. 2021 will jump by at least 20%, and queue-jumping orders will even reach 40%.
Mediatek pays for its own equipment to be produced at contract plants, which are running short of capacity, and TSMC and SMIC have been raising their capital-expenditure budgets. In addition, due to the increasing shortage of capacity, many small IC design companies have been unable to obtain capacity everywhere, even at a markup, so there have been some very sad scenes.


Closed test: the off-season is not light
On November 20, ASE Notified the customer that it would increase the average order price for the first quarter of 2021 by 5-10% to meet the rising cost of IC board price and the strong demand from customers, which led to the shortage of production capacity.
According to industry information, sealed test factory has in October due to the shortage of production capacity and raised the packaging price of wire frame and wire, urgent order and new order will be increased by 10%, after November planting ball packaging capacity is full, plus IC board due to the shortage of price, so the new order has increased by about 20%, urgent order price increase of more than 20-30%. After the middle and late November in previous years, the closed test market will enter the traditional off-season, but this year it looks like full capacity not only before the end of the year is difficult to ease, packaging capacity strain will continue to the second quarter of next year at least, the first quarter of next year the overall increase of 5-10% is imperative.


Chip
AKM
On October 30, AKM officially announced that it is very difficult for the fire plant to resume at present, and it is expected that Q4 will not be scheduled until next year. Now, it is seeking external OEM partners. As an audio IC giant, AKM's severe fire means supply is cut off. The scarcity of AKM is magnified by its small market niche and small market liquidity. AKM is also difficult to supply in the spot market in a short time. At present, AKM product line is almost all on the rise, ranging from several times to dozens of times. Take ak4452VN-L as an example. Previously, the normal price of this type of chip was about 8 yuan, but the current increase is between 60-80 times, which is still hard to find.
From the perspective of product classification, ADC (analog to digital converter, namely A/D converter) audio application products are mainly used, such as AK5720VT-E2, AK4452VN-L, AK5578EN, etc. Short - term supply shortage caused by fire, difficult to replace; Fewer agents and distributors; The soaring demand is an important factor in the price rise of AKM. In general, AKM shortage price has become a certainty, the subsequent supply situation depends on AKM OEM supplementary capacity and the emergence of stable replacement products.


STM
Since STM entered November, the price rise has been curbed. The prices of series 103 and 030 have been slightly adjusted, and have fallen below 2 USD. The market heat has been gradually replaced by AKM. The production capacity problem of STM has not been alleviated. The delivery time is still around 16-20 weeks, and the quota of big customers' prices has almost been used up, indicating that the delivery time should not return to the previous period in a short time.
Due to the prolonged shortage of STM products, factories are looking for substitutes one after another. GD and CHIPSEA, which can be replaced by domestic MCU brands, have been really busy recently.


broadcom
Broadcom, like other IC brands, is also in the storm of price increase, out of stock, and extended delivery time; The state of being out of stock will continue. If it is bad, it will be out of stock for the whole year next year. In the past month, the main missing models are BBCM56842, BCM56846, BCM56860, BCM82792, BCM82381, etc., and some PLX series, PEX8748, PEX8749, etc.
Recently, a large number of steel surface refurbished goods have appeared in Broadcom market, such as the familiar BCM56 series and BCM88 series, most of which are steel surface, such as BCM56846,BCM56860, BCM56960 and so on. It is suggested that peers should be cautious under the premise of poor channel control.


NXP
The shortage of goods was manifested incisively and vividly in November. The original factory was short of production capacity and raw materials. The delivery time was prolonged. Shortage of automobile materials, the current supply of goods in short supply; NFC chip supply also continues to be tight, the most popular NQ310/NQ330 is very short of at present, at the same time, the replacement material number PN553/PN80T also cannot be supplied, the situation is not optimistic; It is expected that this wave of stock shortage will last until Q2 of 2021, and a good improvement cannot be seen before Q2 at present. It is suggested that orders can be arranged in advance if there is a demand.


Realtek
Overall description of RealteK November situation: up, short. The shortage of Realtek became more pronounced in November, with fewer visible sources, except for the web celebrity ALC662, as shortages of many network card chips and switch chips increasingly emerged from clients. Jump ticket plus delivery time to extend the market goods are nervous up, the price doubled has become a common phenomenon of materials. The material delivery date has been extended to march next year, and the market price is rising every day.


renesas
Since the year of Renesas, the overall supply has been tight, with delays or frequent ticket jumps. The delivery time should be at least 16-20 weeks (some materials should be 30 weeks). The current out-of-stock trend will continue after Q1 of next year.
After the new orders from October are sent to the original factory, the order arrangement date will be in early 2021. For example, the order was placed in October. The demand for network communication equipment such as switch and mobile base station is increasing, such as 89H12NT12G2ZCHLG, ISL6617AFRZ-T, 9HT0832PZCBLG8.


AVX
Tantalum capacitor in the market, is still out of stock for the mainstream, or factory production capacity is insufficient, the main reasons why the second half of the first three season due to the outbreak and consumer, and the demand of the industry, new energy, automotive related products, delivery was extended again, routine such as A, B, 105, 106, 107, 226, uf, 16 v, 35 v, 25 v deficiency, such as the serious, then the upward price; T521, TPSE, 2971, 7343, etc. ESR resistance and high polymer capacitance are more in short supply. The delivery period of KEMEET, AVX and VISHAY has been more than 20 weeks.
Tantalum capacitors are highly reliable and have unique advantages that cannot be replaced by ceramic capacitors, aluminum electrolytic capacitors and thin film capacitors. In the high-end capacitor market, especially in the military industry, tantalum capacitors have obvious competitive advantages and relatively stable market share. In the future for a period of time due to delivery can not improve, the lack of material is inevitable, so you can pay more attention.


microchip
Since mid-October, Microchip has seen an increase in demand compared with previous months, largely due to its longer delivery schedule. It is understood that the delivery time of some models of Microchip has been extended to more than 26 weeks, including Atmel, MGM delivery time is very long, the market is in short supply and has been out of stock. For example, microchip LE9641, LE9643 model. Factory demand growth, but the original factory delivery extended, the gap is still very large.
It is reported that the original factory only accepts orders after 12 weeks, that is, only after 12 weeks can it have the right to order, otherwise it needs to charge an extra fee of 10,000-50,000. All kinds of factors show that the shortage of microchip has gradually appeared, the factory should order as soon as possible if there is a long-term demand.


TI
Since November, TI supply has become more and more obvious, not only because of the shortage of small wafers, but also related to the last quarter of the agent to abandon shipments. Some numbers have been in short supply, such as the TPS63070RNMR, which used to cost a few tens of cents, but now costs around $4. The price of TI is still unstable this year, and the delivery date will be gradually extended. If you have stable demand for some material numbers, you might as well get the goods ready in time.


ADI
Recently, in the context of the bustling IC market, ADI demand is relatively low, and some long-out materials also arrive in large quantities. The price of ADM2587 gradually returns to the normal water level, and ADM3053 subducted around US$4 after rising above US$7. The market has been waging a price war.
However, some general materials are still in shortage. It is expected that the follow-up delivery of REF195GSZ will be relieved, but the current market is still shipping books at book prices. ADUM1201ARZ market price is still at US$0.7. Although ADI has less demand recently, it will take some time for supply and demand to regain balance. Even if the market is in a price war, the overall price is still high, so we can try more channels of agents and original factories to get better support.


Ansion beauty
Ansemmi's demand remained strong in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the shortage of wafer capacity that has persisted since the first half of the year. The shortage of 8-inch wafers has the greatest impact on Ansemel, as the main demand end of 8-inch wafers covers almost all of Ansemel's product lines, such as power devices, power management IC, image sensor, drive IC, and especially Mosfet in power devices.
In addition, with the arrival of the traditional peak season in the fourth quarter, automotive electronics and consumer electronics demand increased, resulting in an increase in power component and power management IC shortages, delivery times generally increased to more than 20 weeks.


The LCD panel
The latest news from the supply chain shows that from November 2020, the production capacity of LIQUID crystal display panel (LCD) is more limited, some models cannot even be put into production, and the normal supply of brand customers from the original factory cannot be met. In addition, the shortage of display driven IC may last until the second quarter of next year.
In view of the lack of panel prices, some panel manufacturers have taken the measures such as price increases, production stoppage and shutdown.


Lack lack lack go up go up, exactly when is the head?
According to our previous arrangement, this round of large shortage mainly follows the following logic:
  • Stocks of wafers had been reduced by COVID-19;
  • In the first three quarters of this year, Huawei's orders shifted to China. Before the 915 ban, it frantically pulled goods and squeezed production capacity.
  • After the ban, OPPO, Vivo and Xiaomi began frantically stocking up for space in the market that Huawei had vacated;
  • China took the lead in resuming production, which led to the transfer of many orders from the global market to the Chinese mainland, including mobile phones, home appliances, computers and other wafer production capacity consuming areas. The backlog of overseas orders in the first half of the year was squeezed into the second half of the year.
  • High profit products overstock low profit capacity;
  • The main force of the original factory supports the big customers, the big customers guarantee the production capacity, double the order and strengthen the preparation of goods, leading to the small customers have no rice cooking; ...


Wafer rise, chip rise, seal rise, terminal products rise, raw materials rise, very similar to the mask in March and April this year: mask rise, mask machine rise, melt spray cloth rise... The final result: no matter which link price, in the crazy market change, the rest of the price will rise.

But there is a big difference between the two. Apart from the different consumer groups, it lies in the "rigid supply" of chip manufacturing: both fabs and test plants require huge capital and time costs to set up and operate. Related information: a 12-inch wafer production line investment of up to 10 billion yuan.

According to the current market information, the shortage and price increase of OEM capacity of 8-inch wafers are still the hardest hit among them, mainly because it is difficult to expand production and is not cost-effective. However, for power management IC, large-size panel drive IC and other products, it is most cost-effective to produce in 8-inch factories.

In general, this big shortage market is not only determined by the rigid supply of wafer production capacity itself, but also affected by objective factors such as production capacity allocation rules.

According to the development logic of the industry chain from the upstream wafer fab closure test to the spot market terminal market, there is a great probability that shortage of wafer production capacity will lead to a large stock shortage, in which it takes 3-6 months to map to the market.

At present, the wafer production capacity shortage since July and August has indeed been transmitted to several links of the semiconductor industry chain, but there are too many influencing factors among them, and the pain of shortage and rise will continue to occur before the completion of "pulling goods".

 
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